Cashew Market Overview
In-shells:
- Cashew prices have been stable with a slight downward bias for most of the last month. However, towards the later part, the sentiment amongst shippers has changed as many processors realize they have insufficient coverage of inshells to process through the rest of the year.
- September month will see lower inshell imports into Vietnam which will mean lower need for cash.
- We estimate all distress sales – sales of kernels to raise cash to clear inshells shipments – will pause and processors will start working towards higher sales price levels for kernels.
- If demand continues to remain firm in the next months, we will see price appreciation as demand will then exceed supply.
Bullish Trends:
- We are entering a seasonally strong period for demand/consumption across the globe.
- Kernels are still at disparity to inshells and must correct upwards to maintain some processor margin.
- Lower availability of inshells as Northern Hemisphere crops are almost fully traded.
- Southern Hemisphere crops may not be sufficient to satisfy demand at current levels.
- Defaults can re-start and can result in higher volatility in kernel and inshell prices.
Bearish Trends:
- Higher price levels may impact consumption.
- If Tanzania crop is better than expected, we may see a rush to sell Tanzanian inshells and liquidate before end of 2024.
- Northern hemisphere crops may be early and will impact sentiments and buyer behavior.
More Cashew Market Overview and Global Nuts Overview @ Olam
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